Thursday, April 22, 2010

dreaming, dreaming

Earlier this morning I made a note, a little industrial company I want to start, but it's a silly thing. I made the note when I was trying to think of another business to get into I had thought up a bit earliers still, which was much more compelling, but it had escaped me. The other thing that came to mind was my concept for selling batteries. I do want to advance that one.

After that I worked on stocks for two hours. First I reviewed yesterday's scan list, getting the same results I've been getting every day, here: I get the feeling, stock after stock, it is in  a positing to rally with extreme energy. The patterns are classic pre-breakout, and I'm seeing (in my imagination) them jumping to new highs, not for the last ten or twenty years, but new all time highs. This would not make much sense by itself as a buying reccomendation, although breakout theory can be compelling when analyzed in detail, but it exists in the context of other bullish factors, above all, that prices really are at historic lows, that prices are rallying from those lows with great intensity in the stocks I'm looking at, as well as in the news, i.e., the broader market. I think there are fundamentals based reasons to expect large new advances in the market, as I say, advances to historically new highs.

What about the risk? I invested a small amount of money in a list of almost a dozen small companies, in the last two days. What's the risk of loosing all that money? They all looked like real companies to me. The charts all seem to trade quite actively, the profiles describe rather vibrant lines of business, and the key statistics ... when I check them ... show revenues, cash, modest losses, assets, and sometimes large debts, all of which have potentially beneficial ramifications for shareholders. The thing is, there's a possibility that we will not see anything like today's low price for a long period of time, that's what the charts are telling me. Now, that's charts of these stocks, to some extent, but in these charts, that's what I'm seeing. Based on that, I'm buying now, even though prices are subtantially up. This is to say, I'm not buying dips, I'm just buying. However, I am picking my prices, placing limit order, while looking at intraday charts. I have to pick a price I think I can get, while I can still get it. Then I place the limit order to ensure I don't accidentally pay more than I'd be happy with. Then there's a period of waiting to see if I got my price. So, yes, that is sort of essoteric.

Now, if I'm right, all my stocks are going to skyrocket from here, and you won't own them. But, another prediction I'm making is that a churning bottom market is going to continue in force for some time. The stocks I'm buying today may break out and not return, but even they may produce other interesting buying oportunities while they do, and they are only a minute sample of all the stocks on the market. I know there are lots of other stocks making bottom patterns, and I suspect if we continue to watch them, using the scanning method I've described, we will see more, lots, signalling breakouts, every day, for a lot of days. (Those breakout signal are the buying signal ... the historical pattern shows why there's a buying signal.)

I also checked the stocks I bought yesterday. The first one was down a little, and I studied the chart to see if it was a problem. Ultimately I decided it was OK. The second one was beautifully up. A beauty of a stock! This one I'll publish: REED, between 2 and 3. It's making short term v bottoms, which is idealy where you would buy it. Anyway, another one down a little, and I marked it as something to keep an eye on, and then another one rallying. I considered placing a stop, but why take defensive action when there's not even a hint of reversal? And so it went, with most of them up or holding solidly. Very nice!

This was all about mid-trading day (NY time), and after that I sort of knocked off, and tried to get my head wrapped around some other stuff, like this blog.

So, battery systems and ... maybe this is the one I was thinking about: it's an entirely new approach to CAD, that will be very easy for anybody to use. Yeah, I keep saying that, but this is such a neat trick, I can't just broadcast it. I don't know what to do. Hmm. Maybe I can implement it manually. Interesting!

I wanted to write something more interesting than that. Dreaming, dreaming. Now I feel like getting to work!

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